Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Election Politics: Fact, Fiction and Fantasy

Few poli-sci majors will dispute there is both an art and a science to the election process. It's akin to economics, where the best reporting is often in hindsight. How else can one explain why there is more than a 30 point (30%) differential between polling results offered by the Chafee and Laffey campaigns this past week? Each shows the opponent winning by roughly 15% or a 65% to 35% vote split. Is it fact, fiction or fantasy? Absent of media investigative rigor, how much does simply reporting this create a self fulfilling prophesy?

This is not like cheering on the Red Sox. We're supposed to support them whether they're winning or loosing against the Yanks... but some cast their vote because they fear they might not pick the "winner" versus the "best" candidate. Mayor Laffey may have it right. Both of us hail from an analytical business background and know that polls and numbers can be manipulated very, very easily. I hope he agrees the only wasted vote is the one not cast.

In the case of the Democratic machine politics, in one month and over $500,000 in television ads later Matt Brown surpassed Sheldon Whitehouse in the polls by almost a 2:1 margin. The problem with this and subsequent polls is they often do not survey historic primary (core) voters, but rather likely voters. Traditionally, in most election years, primary voters often vote first based upon their local candidates and then on statewide and federal candidates. In June of this year, Survey USA reported Sheldon Whitehouse with a 30% favorable, 35% unfavorable and 25% undecided ratings. He polled worst among people 55+ and older as well as minorities and best with 25 and younger and those residing in the state fewer than five years.

The 55+ are the folks who ARE core voters. They have time and read and watch the news. They grew up when civics was part of the class curriculum. These are the people of WWII, the Korean and Vietnam Wars. Our youth do vote, but in much lower numbers. That could change if we go into Iran and the draft is reinstated. Those in the state for five or fewer years may not be aware of the York-Whitehouse acrimony and his failed gubernatorial primary (he skipped out on her afterwards), Cornell Young, Jennifer Rivera, Scott Hornoff, outsourcing the lead based paint case, feds taking over on PlunderDome, or the “higher office is my legacy" debacles. Undoubtedly, if he wins his primary the media will likely highlight these facts to stir up the controversy.

Fiction is so much easier to present. After spending in excess of $2 million in advertising, Sheldon's numbers have not moved measurably against Lincoln Chafee in the past two months nor is there much discussion over some base erosion from the caustic nature of the Chafee-Laffey mudslinging of cross-over democrats voting as Independents in the primary or in the general elections.

Is it fantasy to think that primary voters have had enough of machine politics? Strip away the inherited wealth and pedigree education and upbringing. The public has clearly seen that their best interests do not necessarily correlate with the most privileged who would spend much to gain the power. This might explain why incomes for most of us have stagnated compared to those in the top 5% or why working and middle class families serve in the blue uniform of first responders (EMT, fire and police) and the green uniform of our armed services in disproportionate numbers to the affluent. This was not always the case, but certainly has been during the past three decades.

Our campaign trusts Rhode Island voters. We trust many primary voters connected with our Be Patriotic, Impeach Bush and bring our troops home now messages. We trust they have seen us at their gatherings, parishes, banquets, meetings and communities supporting their local candidates and issues. We don't think it's fiction we've seen our gap close to single digits against Sheldon nor do we think it is coincidence he chose to avoid debating or has spent over $2 million thus far in the primary if he thought he had anything to lose with his name recognition so high. The polls won't capture all of the local primary races from folks like you and me who have simply had enough and believe they can do the job better.

Many a million has been spent by the loser. The fact remains is that the only number that matters is this: How many will go to the polls and what issues they want resolved and by whom?

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