Four months ago I spoke at Brown University to attendees who wanted to get a glimpse of the Marine veteran and U.S. Senate candidate upstart. I cautioned them that within 10 years the geopolitical landscape could look wholly different than now. My caution was an expanded Middle East war and our country’s path was a non-partisan issue.
I stressed the epicenter of the collision would be based upon oil. Venezuela with its oil reserves will influence the entirety of South and Central America. China’s consumption now rivals and will far exceed our own by 2010. This was confirmed by my recent visit there last summer where I witnessed their expanding manufacturing centers. While we’re struggling in the Middle East, China is entering into arrangements with many oil rich African and Asian countries – and they have tens of billions of dollars invested in Iran. China will consume in 15 years what it took the U.S. 40 years to use. The economic and environmental consequences are staggering. In short, there just isn’t enough oil.
By late Spring, we’ll experience gas prices exceeding $3.00 a gallon while the CEO of Exxon/Mobil will have received $400 million in compensation. The oil futures price per barrel has exceeded $70, about double the pre-Iraq invasion price. Industry analysts have every reason to expect even a limited U.S. military strike in Iran (under the pretenses of preemptive attack) will escalate the price and rock the tenuous balance in the region.
Iran and Muslim fanatics will retaliate both directly and indirectly. They’ll target the Straits of Hormuz to block the flow of oil shipping and aggressively pursue pipelines in and around Saudi Arabia. Oil has been and still remains the U.S. life blood in a very real sense. The current administration will justify expanded military operations in the region.
There’s a reason that past and current generals are challenging Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, the face behind the Bush/Cheney personal ambitions. They know U.S. military manpower needed to support an extended regional presence is more than three times the number we currently have in place. They know it will require a draft. They know it will take hundreds of billions of dollars and costs tens of thousands of American lives.
Bush’s expressed intent to stay in the region past 2008 has reduced our troops’ morale. The public is catching on to the deception. It’s a question of engaged resolve and priorities. In places like Munich, the local transit consists of an efficient blend of trains, buses and cycling. Our infrastructure has the potential to support this, but American habits and willpower need to support these options.
The 2006 elections could decide America’s future fate. My vision is to save lives and end the hypocrisy and lack of leadership. Invest our billions in the development of alternative energy, healthcare and education and make minor modifications to our lifestyles. Rest assured, the alternative is truly our kids’ and grandkid’s blood for oil.
1 Comments:
I feel you, Carl. And I feel for all the people who rely on their cars. This is going to hurt, and we can all thank Politics As Usual for the pain.
Only every sensible economist and commodities trader for the past decade has been watching us approach this magical tipping point where oil supply exactly matches demand. And demand is still on the way up.
Where was the leadership? Mr. Bush? Mr. Cheney? Mr. Kennedy?
You mention the "European" solution which I heartily endorse, but you don't mention the way these things are funded: fuel tax.
(Ouch, I know. But let's all be grown ups and recognize the reality of the situation: public transit needs public funding. End of Story.)
I personally am way out in front on this issue because I have designed my life around NOT using a car. I have a car, but I prefer to see it parked.
I walk and cycle as much as practical, as in, I sometimes cycle 33 miles from Pawtucket to Horseneck Beach.
Yes, it can be a hassle. Sometimes I walk in bad weather. Sometimes, I have muscle pain.
It's called "sacrifice," Rhode Island. You should try it sometime.
I believe you, Carl, are familiar with the concept.
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